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China's Growth Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for the Global Economy
Published on August 30, 2024
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
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What Jack Nicholson Knew About Forecasting Errors
August 30, 2024
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
Fed Pivots and Baby Aspirin
August 30, 2024
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.