Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 164% Above Trend in August
Published on September 3, 2024
Quick take: At the end of August, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 164% above its long-term trend, down from July.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.