The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production Worse Than Expected in September

Published on October 17, 2024

Industrial production was down 0.3% in September, coming in worse than the expected 0.1% decrease. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is down 0.64%.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.3% in September

October 17, 2024
Nominal retail sales in September were up 0.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 1.74% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.25% MoM and down 0.65% YoY.

The Big Four Recession Indicators

October 17, 2024
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.