Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 183% Above Trend in October
Published on December 5, 2024
Quick take: At the end of November, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 183% above its long-term trend, up from October.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.