The Big Four Recession Indicators: November Employment

Published on December 6, 2024

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. November saw a 227,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rose to 4.2%.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Edges Higher

December 6, 2024
Consumer sentiment continued to rise, according to the preliminary December report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 3.1 points (3.1%) from November's final reading to 74.0. The latest reading was below the forecast of 73.1.

The Big Four Recession Indicators

December 6, 2024
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.