G17: G.17 statistical release with September IP/CU estimates to be issued at 9:15 a.m. EST on December 3, 2025

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.