2026 Outlook: Treasury Bonds and Fixed Income

Published on December 5, 2025

Overall, we expect 2026 to be another good year of returns for bond investors, but the range of potential outcomes is wide.

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Chart Check Into Year-End

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Despite nearly a 5% deficit mid-month, the S&P 500 finished November with a modest 0.1% gain, fueled by strong earnings, AI optimism, and hopes for Fed rate cuts. This rebound helped repair technical damage, lifting the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average, though retail investors remain hesitant to re-engage.

To Meet Your Investment Goals, Focus on Yields Rather Than Spreads

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Spreads are essential for investors who utilize leverage, but for most fixed income investors, yields are much more important. Fortunately, in today’s market, yields are relatively attractive despite historically tight spreads.