The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income

Published on December 5, 2025

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in September and was up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Flat in September

December 5, 2025
With the release of September's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up 0.28% month-over-month. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was nearly flat, up 0.01%.

Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Synovus Bank

December 5, 2025
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of Synovus Bank