Core PCE Inflation Cools to 2.8% in September, Lower Than Expected

Published on December 5, 2025

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in September. This was lower than the forecast and a slight cooldown from August's 2.9% reading. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.2%, as expected.

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With the release of September's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up 0.28% month-over-month. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was nearly flat, up 0.01%.