Cooling CPI and Resilient Growth Support Stocks

Published on December 23, 2025

The market’s big “aha” moment last week was a CPI print that came in meaningfully cooler than expected, followed immediately by the usual chorus that it must be “distorted.”

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When the Future Becomes the Past

December 23, 2025
In this year-end reflection, we eschew the typical theater of market predictions to instead examine the "knew-it-all-along" effect and the cognitive illusions that make past volatility seem orderly.

Merger Arbitrage: Riding the Wave Into 2026

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Driven by a more predictable regulatory backdrop and a surge in large-scale deal flow, 2025 has delivered the strongest merger arbitrage returns since the post-pandemic boom. This resurgence, characterized by narrowing spreads and a notable lack of failed deals, has set a robust foundation for continued activity into 2026.