About the “Weakening” Labor Market: Are You Sure?

Published on December 24, 2025

We guess if you say something enough, a lot of people will start to believe it. The current refrain is that the labor market is cold, weak, struggling. A Google search for “labor market” is eye opening. The first five headlines use the words ‘weakened,’ ‘troubling,’ ‘risky,’ ‘slowing,’ and ‘warning signs.’

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Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

December 24, 2025
In the week ending December 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 217,500.

Did Employment Numbers Change the Equation for the Fed?

December 24, 2025
Now that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed October and November nonfarm payroll numbers, do we know more about the US labor market than we knew before the release? Probably not.