GDP Per Capita: Q3 2025 Advance Estimate

Published on December 29, 2025

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 4.34%, an acceleration from 3.84% for the Q2 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 3.71%, a pickup from 3.30% for the Q2 headline number.

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Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: December 2025

December 29, 2025
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Two prominent monthly surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), aim to capture this vital pulse. In December, these gauges sent similar signals with consumer attitudes at some

The Year Everyone Got Wrong: 2025 in Review

December 29, 2025
If you listened to the consensus back in April, you probably thought the sky was falling.Recession was coming. The market was toast. Time to hide.But that’s not how things worked out, and the year-end data tells the real story. And…it’s a good reminder of why we don’t make portfolio decisions based on headlines or polls.The Worst Start Since 2020Through April 8th, 2025, things were shaping up to b