2026 Forecast: Still Wary

Published on January 6, 2026

Last year, we thought economic growth would slow. Verdict: GDP data say we were wrong, employment data say we were right. Last year we thought the stock market would decline. Verdict: it did in March and April, sharply, but the S&P 500 ended the year with an impressive 16.4% gain. Overall, we’d say our negativity was unwarranted.

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