The Total Return Roller Coaster: December 2025

Published on January 7, 2026

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?

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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - December 2025

January 7, 2026
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

Cetera COO Tom Gooley to Retire

January 7, 2026
Gooley will stay on through the end of the first quarter to help Cetera transition to the new COO, to be announced soon.