Federal Reserve Board announces the designation of the Chairs and Deputy Chairs of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks for 2026

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In December, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%.