The Bipolar Economy

Published on January 12, 2026

The purpose of these forecasts isn’t pinpoint accuracy. Just getting the direction right is a challenge. I don’t have a crystal ball and neither does anyone else. But reviewing what might happen compels us to prepare for different scenarios – at least mentally. And often, mental preparation is half the battle.

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US Department of Labor awards $23.4M to strengthen labor law in Mexico, fuel American jobs, wage growth

January 12, 2026
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Labor today announced the award of more than $23 million in funding to strengthen labor law enforcement in Mexico and ensure that U.S.-Mexico trade benefits American workers and businesses.The department awarded $15.4 million to Partners of the Americas and $8 million to Creative Associates International to support efforts with Mexico’s government, private secto

Q4 2025 Baird Chautauqua International and Global Growth Fund Commentary

January 12, 2026
Looking ahead, we enter the new year with cautious optimism. Trade agreements have removed the most severe tail risks, but the underlying picture is mixed: inflation remains above target in the U.S., labor markets are softening, and central banks are no longer moving in unison. The key question for 2026 is whether the Fed can continue easing or whether persistent inflation forces a pause.