Why Our 2026 Outlook Isn’t a Forecast-It’s a Myth-Busting Exercise

Published on January 20, 2026

For investors navigating an uncertain macro landscape, avoiding the wrong narratives may matter more than predicting the right numbers.

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Employment Remains Weak, But a Recovery is in the Cards

January 20, 2026
The biggest concern for the Federal Reserve (Fed) today is the weakness in employment over the last year, and especially during the second half of the year. This weakness was behind its decision to resume interest rate cuts in September of 2025.

The Bond Market in 2026: What Could Go Wrong?

January 20, 2026
We expect another generally good year for bond returns this year, but even the best-laid plans can go awry when circumstances change. Here are four risks to our outlook.