Why U.S. Productivity Gains No Longer Reach Workers

Published on January 27, 2026

Last week in our latest Cyclical Outlook, “Compounding Opportunity,” we argued that beneath the economy’s broad resilience lies a stark divergence. U.S. policy pivots combined with the surge in adoption of AI technology have created winners and losers.

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Quarterly Review and Outlook Fourth Quarter 2025

January 27, 2026
Concerns over accelerating inflation persisted throughout 2025. However, these anxieties were unwarranted as wage and price increases slowed in response to eight influential factors that also suggest that last year’s disinflation will persist in 2026.

Stalemate? The US Dollar Caught in a Tug of War

January 27, 2026
Former Federal Open Market Committee Chairman Alan Greenspan famously observed that forecasting foreign exchange was like flipping a coin. Last year proved him right. What happened, and what lessons can it teach us about the dollar in 2026?