An Inside Look at the Q4 2025 GDP Advance Estimate

Published on February 20, 2026

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

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Two Measures of Inflation: December 2025

February 20, 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.0% and core CPI at 2.5%.

The Big Four Recession Indicators

February 20, 2026
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.