Eight Takeaways from the Supreme Court’s Tariff Ruling

Published on February 23, 2026

While the Court did not explicitly order refunds to be paid — instead sending that decision to the lower courts — by some estimates this decision opens the door to potentially as much as $175 billion in tariff reimbursements to U.S. importers.

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The AI-Driven Productivity Tide May Not Lift All Boats

February 23, 2026
In recent editions of Macro Signposts, we’ve emphasized how U.S. policy changes coinciding with the emergence of a new general-purpose technology (AI) may be accelerating adoption and diffusion of that technology – while also driving economic adjustments.

Why Today’s Environment Favors Mortgage-Backed Securities

February 23, 2026
It can sometimes be hard to tell whether the US housing market is hot or cold. Currently, existing-home inventory is tight and prices are stable—indicators of a hot market—while sales volume is down and home price appreciation has slowed. So, what’s the temperature?