The Big Four Recession Indicators: February 2026 Employment
Published on March 6, 2026
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In February, total nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%.