Iran Risk Rises Sharply, Fed Sees Stronger Growth, Markets Fear Oil

Published on March 24, 2026

Faster productivity growth lifts earnings, improves the long-run fiscal arithmetic, and allows the economy to run stronger without recreating the inflation regime of 2022. Historically, markets are slow to recognize when the supply side of the economy has improved. This time should be no different. The productivity story is more durable than this week’s Iran developments, which is dominate trading over the near term.

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The War in Iran

March 24, 2026
With apologies if this is the tenth investment piece you’ve read this week about the impact of the Iran War on asset markets, but we wanted to share our thoughts on what’s going on with our investors. First a recap. The S&P 500 is down 5.4% since the February 28, 2026 start of the Iran War.

Fertilizers And Food At Risk

March 24, 2026
While agricultural best practices have moved on to other resources, the Guano Wars teach us that nations are willing to go to great lengths to sustain their crops.