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Markets and Economic Outlook Remain Constructive Amid Oil-Driven Narrative

Published on March 24, 2026

The key swing factor remains oil prices. If the conflict ends within this window, we still expect only limited impacts on our economic and asset‑class outlooks.

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Let the Games Begin: Markets vs. The Fed

lthough the US now produces more oil than it consumes, it still exports lighter crude and imports heavier crude that US refineries need. As a result, global supply disruptions continue to play an outsized role in determining what US consumers pay at the pump. In short, during geopolitical crises, international oil markets matter more for gasoline prices than domestic production alone.