From Headlines to Portfolio Impact: Investing Through Geopolitical Risk

Published on March 25, 2026

Geopolitical headlines rarely arrive quietly. The recent escalation in the Middle East is a reminder of how quickly tensions can feel destabilizing.

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Let the Games Begin: Markets vs. The Fed

March 25, 2026
Although the US now produces more oil than it consumes, it still exports lighter crude and imports heavier crude that US refineries need. As a result, global supply disruptions continue to play an outsized role in determining what US consumers pay at the pump. In short, during geopolitical crises, international oil markets matter more for gasoline prices than domestic production alone.

It's a Topsy Turvy World

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The Fed’s decision made sense: don’t change the target for short-term interest rates if we don’t know what the world will look like tomorrow. But investors need to remember a couple of important things. Rate cuts, if they ever come, are less important than the money supply.