Strait Risk and Yields Pressure Markets

Published on March 31, 2026

Given the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and oil prices, the case for near-term Fed cuts has weakened materially. That is the key message from this market.

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America Should Beware of Economic Hubris

March 31, 2026
Even if the US economy continues outperforming its peers, it will not necessarily remain insulated from the Iran war’s adverse spillovers. Already, higher energy and borrowing costs are exacerbating the affordability pressures many Americans face, creating downside risks for jobs, consumption, and growth.

Stocks See Troubles Brewing

March 31, 2026
The US economy grew a pedestrian 2.0% last year and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is currently projecting real GDP growth at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter. If anything, we think there is more downside risk than up to the first quarter projection.