The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income

Published on April 30, 2026

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% in March and was up 3.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.1% in March

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With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.59% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.07%.