The Big Four Recession Indicators: May 2026 Employment

Published on June 5, 2026

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

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Employment Report: 172K Jobs Added in May, Higher Than Expected

June 5, 2026
The latest employment report showed that 172,000 jobs were added in May, down slightly from April's 179,000 gain. This figure was more than double the projected addition of 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, as expected.

Musk Leaves Investors Starstruck at Dimon’s SpaceX Extravaganza

June 5, 2026
Elon Musk can still enchant investors with his vision of the future. Any questions about SpaceX’s record-breaking initial public offering — be it about the valuation, the company’s trajectory or technical execution — were brushed aside as the retail marketing for the deal got under way.