Seasonal Challenges With Economic Data

Published on February 25, 2025

At this time of year, those of us who live in the Northern hemisphere are looking forward to a change of season. Statistically, every February week in Chicago should see the daily high temperature rise by 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit, but conditions can vary significantly from expectations.

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What Scares the S&P 500?

February 25, 2025
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.

Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction

February 25, 2025
Retail investors are expected to become more bullish about increasing equity exposure when markets rise.