The Big Four Recession Indicators: Employment

Published on July 2, 2026

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

July 2, 2026
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.