AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy

Published on July 13, 2026

The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.

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Economic Anomalies

July 13, 2026
This week a number of articles caught my attention. The only thing that ties them together is their impact on the US and global economy. Economic anomalies: things we were not looking for but show up and force us to pay attention. Today in the summer heat, let’s take a look at a few of them.

Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: Navigating High Expectations, Tariff Rebates, and War Uncertainties

July 13, 2026
What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.