Labor Market Strength Shifts Focus Back to Inflation

Published on July 14, 2026

Over the past few weeks, data has continued to point to a U.S. labor market that is healing after showing signs of weakness starting in late 2024 and persisting for nearly the entirety of 2025—a condition that spurred the Fed to cut rates even as inflation remained stuck above its 2 percent target.

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A Higher Bar for Earnings Season

July 14, 2026
The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.

Tariff Pass-Through Is Not Over

July 14, 2026
While tariff uncertainty hasn’t completely disappeared, it has diminished, and firms are feeling less uncertain about the future.