The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Published on July 16, 2026

Nominal retail sales were up 0.22% month-over-month and up 6.72% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.64% month-over-month and up 3.15% year-over-year.

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NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Pull Down Builder Sentiment

July 16, 2026
Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.

Too Few Stocks Control the S&P 500’s Future

July 16, 2026
Is it a bubble or isn’t it? That’s what everyone seems to be asking about the US stock market. I say it isn’t. A bubble to me is when price becomes disconnected from any rational, articulable value, the way people chased opaque schemes in the Roaring 1920s or the blind faith in new internet companies in the 1990s.