Quarterly Review and Outlook Second Quarter 2026

Published on July 28, 2026

The structural inflation outlook can be understood through the standard economic production function, where output is determined by labor, capital, technology, natural resources, and productivity growth. Following the collapse of the Iron Curtain and China's integration into the global trading system, the world experienced one of the largest positive supply shocks in modern economic history.

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A Technology Unlike Any Before It?

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The motivation for today's report comes from the growing number of articles warning about the possibility of an AI bubble. The truth is that nobody knows whether a bubble exists today in artificial intelligence or whether one may emerge in the future.

US Stocks: Margin Math Tests the Earnings Story

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