The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Published on August 14, 2026

Nominal retail sales were down 0.58% month-over-month and up 5.01% year-over-year in July. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.66% month-over-month and up 1.65% year-over-year.

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Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly in July

August 14, 2026
U.S. headline retail sales fell unexpectedly in July, down 0.6% to $763.6B in July, while core retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.3%.

Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 14, 2026

August 14, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished August 14, 2026 at 4.68% while the 2-year note ended at 4.17%.