If Inflation Is the Problem, Why Aren't Wages?

Published on September 4, 2026

Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech struck a decidedly hawkish tone and was arguably the clearest signal yet that the Federal Reserve is actively considering additional tightening. Markets responded by raising the probability of a September hike to roughly 60% and pricing approximately 60 basis points of cumulative tightening through the middle of next year.

Continue reading on website
Other news

Gold Monthly August 2026: Sentiment Turns More Positive

September 4, 2026
With recent data weakening the case for an immediate increase in rates, markets have sharply pared expectations for near-term tightening, with a hike no longer fully priced before early 2027.3 This moderation in rate-hike fears has been supportive for gold.

Weak September Seasonals Precede Strong Midterm Trends

September 4, 2026
Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run off the spring lows and have largely shrugged off concerns around growth, inflation, higher interest rates, the effects of artificial intelligence (AI), geopolitics, and policy uncertainty. As the calendar turns to September, however, they are entering what has historically been, from a seasonality perspective, the most challenging month of the year for equities.