Songs of Experience: Reminiscences of a Strategist

Published on September 8, 2026

It's been 40 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.

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Toward a More Conventional Fed

September 8, 2026
I haven’t always taken the most conventional approach to economics. In a world where many practitioners construct elaborate models to arrive at conclusions, I often find more value in simply following my instincts. During stressful times and paradigm changes, thinking outside of the equations is essential.

AI Bears: Right About The Excess, May Be Wrong On The Trade

September 8, 2026
Before I discuss why I disagree with the “AI bears,” I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a different set of conclusions. That is an important statement, because this particular group of “AI bears” includes some of the sharpest risk minds in the business, and they have been early to almost every warning that later mattered.