The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Published on October 15, 2026

Nominal retail sales were up 0.8% month-over-month and up 6.3% year-over-year in September. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.1% month-over-month and up 2.5% year-over-year.

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September Retail Sales Better Than Expectations

October 15, 2026
U.S. headline retail sales grew 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, while core retail sales increased by 0.9% to $605.2 billion.

Producer Price Index: Up 1.3% in September, Better Than Expected

October 15, 2026
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 1.3% in September, better than expectations.