Trade Deficit Surge to Record High in January

Published on March 6, 2025

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected, as a surge in imports exceeded a smaller increase in exports. In January, the trade deficit expanded 34.0% to -$131.4B, the largest one month jump since 2015 and the largest deficit on record. 

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Unemployment Claims Down 21K, Lower Than Expected

March 6, 2025
In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.

Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - February 2025

March 6, 2025
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.