The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Flat in February

Published on March 17, 2025

Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.

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NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Drags Builder Confidence to 7-Month Low

March 17, 2025
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.

The Math Behind Earnings Growth Does Not Support High Stock Prices

March 17, 2025
Prices can continue to rise, until they don’t. Have we reached the point where they don’t?