The Uncertainty Recession

Published on April 14, 2025

You probably noticed we are having one of those “weeks when decades happen.” Notice also, however, that we are still here. Your investments and businesses may be bruised but you’re still in the game.

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Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

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Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.

Jeremy Siegel: Don't Expect New Stock-Market Highs Anytime Soon

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