A Bear Market Rally? Or, Just A Correction?

Published on May 14, 2025

Assessing a bear market rally proves challenging when you experience it firsthand. It is only in hindsight that the complete picture reveals itself to investors. Of course, after a bear market rally, investors tend to review their investments and speculate on what they should have done differently.

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Fed's Rigidity Risks Recession as Tariffs Start to Bite

May 14, 2025
The surprisingly large reduction in mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. announced early Monday morning has sent the markets flying. Trump has softened his approach dramatically and markets are expecting future deals. The base case: everyone at 10%, China at say 20% is still a jump, but at least will likely prevent a recession. Trade and tariffs remain the main focus for markets.

US Oil Output Has Peaked. But Don’t Expect a Rapid Decline.

May 14, 2025
The chain-smoking protagonist of Landman, the American television drama series about the Texas oil industry, puts it better than anyone else: “You want oil to live above 60, but below 90,” says the fictional Tommy Norris. “Seventy-eight dollars a barrel, that’s about perfect.”