The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.3% in April

Published on May 30, 2025

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in April and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.7% in April

May 30, 2025
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.

Chicago PMI Sinks to 4-Month Low

May 30, 2025
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted.