Narratives vs. Fundamentals: Battle in the Bond Market

Published on June 2, 2025

This article presents a different perspective on the question of why bond yields are rising. I focus on the difference between narratives and fundamentals. However, I briefly review the current situation with Treasury yields before starting.

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Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: May 2025

June 2, 2025
Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.7 is 155% above its arithmetic mean, 178% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?

June 2, 2025
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.The Crestmont Research P/E ratioThe cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisorThe Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement costThe relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline