The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May

Published on June 17, 2025

Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.

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11 Investment Must Reads for This Week (June 17, 2025)

June 17, 2025
Third-party model portfolios had $646 billion in assets under management as of March 31—an increase of 62% since June 2023, according to Morningstar. While more than 60 asset managers have filed for dual-class share structures, many firms may never launch them, Ignites reports. These are among the investment must-reads we found this week for financial advisors.

Bigger Than Tariffs

June 17, 2025
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).