The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Down 0.1% in May

Published on June 27, 2025

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat in May and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.7% in May

June 27, 2025
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.

Agencies request comment on proposal to modify certain regulatory capital standards

June 27, 2025
Agencies request comment on proposal to modify certain regulatory capital standards