The Fed’s “Transitory” Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook

Published on June 30, 2025

Despite the elevated levels of total economic stimulus, inflation and economic growth have subsided as the economy continues normalizing.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

June 30, 2025
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 20th, the index was at 6.875, down 1.881 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

Chicago PMI Falls Further to 5-Month Low

June 30, 2025
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a third straight month to its lowest level since January. The index inched down to 40.4 in June from 40.5 in May, falling short of the 42.7 forecast.