Tariff Shock Puts Team Modi in a Tight Corner

Published on July 31, 2025

President Donald Trump has put the Indian prime minister in a tight corner. The 25% tariff that he says he’ll impose on US imports from the most-populous nation isn’t significantly higher than the rates he has announced for Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

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One Way to Ease the US Debt Crisis? Productivity

July 31, 2025
In a May report on alternative scenarios for the long-term US budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the impact of productivity growth that was faster or slower than the 1% annual average in its baseline forecast. It made a big difference.

Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.8% in June, Higher Than Expected

July 31, 2025
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in June. This was higher than the expected 2.7% growth and a slight pickup from May. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.3%, as expected.