The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Down 0.2% in June

Published on July 31, 2025

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.1% in June and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.2% month-over-month and up 1.3% year-over-year.