The Big Four Recession Indicators: July 2025 Employment

Published on August 1, 2025

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In July, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.

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Consumer Sentiment Inches Up in July But Remains Historically Low

August 1, 2025
Consumer sentiment inched up in July, increasing for a second straight month. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was up 1.6% (1.0 point) to 61.7 this month. This is the index's highest level since February but still reflects historically low levels of optimism.

Fidelity Taps Vestmark for New Custom Model Portfolios

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