Is Another Great Moderation at Hand?

Published on August 29, 2025

Radical policy changes can launch new economic eras.

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Two Measures of Inflation: July 2025

August 29, 2025
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of July 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.9% and core CPI at 3.1%.

Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: August 2025

August 29, 2025
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Two prominent monthly surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), aim to capture this vital pulse. In August, these gauges sent similar signals with consumer attitudes worsening